| Author | Message | ||
     Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1747 Registered: 10-2010 |
Ok, doing a little quick reading on this - verify things yourself because this is just some quick reading. There is a total of 2286 delegates available for the Republican nomination. A candidate wins nomination and avoids a brokered convention by amassing 1144 delegates through the primary process. The exact system varies from state to state with some results being non-binding. The New York times shows the following delegate count as of this morning: Romney 495 Santorum 252 Newt 131 Paul 48 That is a total of 926 delegates assigned leaving 1360 in play. So far Mitt has gotten 53.46% of the delegates available. Apply this number to 1360 and you get 727 more delegates expected. 727+495=1222 - a clear majority. However, and this is where it starts to get interesting, through MI Romney had won 118 delegates out of 172 possible delegates - 68.60%. Since MI he has won 377 of a possible 754 - 50%. 50% of the remaining delegates is 680. This still puts us over the 1144 mark at 1175. However, not all the delegates are legally bound and this is counting pledged delegates that can change. In order to reach the 1144 number Romney needs 649 more delegates - 48% of the remaining delegates. If the trend to split the delegates further continues (and it appears to have continued on 3/10 though that may be geographic) Romney will fail to amass the required 1144 delegates and we will have a brokered convention. | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1749 Registered: 10-2010 |
TLDR: I think Romney is trending downward. While I do not think anyone has any chance of having more delegates than he does I do not think he reaches the 1144 needed to avoid a brokered convention. | ||
| Bleak_widow Message Board Member Username: Bleak_widow Post Number: 395 Registered: 11-2010  |
Ron Paul actually has most of the unbound delegates. He's likely ahead of Santorum in total delegates. The real elections are happening long after the "official" results are reported. Go back to sleep now fellas. | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5818 Registered: 06-2009  |
Trending downward in the south maybe. I think when we get to the population centers of the country, we'll see a major Romney Romp. He does well in big cities--just like Obama. Santorum does well only in rural areas--place where people are ALREADY going to vote for whomever the Republican candidate is. To compete with Obama, we NEED somebody who does well in big cities. That's Romney. We need somebody who is going to get the Independants--Santorum sure WON'T. | ||
| Heyjoe Message Board Member Username: Heyjoe Post Number: 2580 Registered: 02-2009  |
im pretty confident Romney will win NY, NJ, Maryland, California and Connecticut. Probably Illinois. Texas i dont know enough about. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2350 Registered: 09-2010  |
Dar ~ Don't you listen to the talking heads? Don't you know there is no such thing as an independent or a moderate? They are all just liberal traitors who won't admit it. There is no chance that there is anyone left in the country that is a free thinker. Heyjoe ~ I think you are right about NY, NJ and Maryland. Cali I dunno alot of the "real Conservatives" out here are going to vote Santorum but there are ALOT of registered independents and those votes will go to Romney most likely. The Cali republican races are always somewhat lack luster on account of the population bases voting in whatever liberal is on the ticket no matter who they are. It will be interesting to see the percentage results in November though as even most of the liberals I know out here have some gripe with Obama and the Moderates seem to loathe him more and more by the day.... | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5820 Registered: 06-2009 |
LOL, West. It seems there are many who have not decided if they want Obama or the Republican-who-has-not-been-named. Too many people in this country are wishy-washy. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2352 Registered: 09-2010 |
Oh I think most have decided they don't want Obama for another four. But that could change with debates I think if you put Santorum up against Obama big O will have a hay day with him. (Don't get me wrong I don't dislike Santorum) But I would prefer Romney if I got to pick between them. Like I said Republican races are always somewhat lack luster here... | ||
| Chopprs Message Board Member Username: Chopprs Post Number: 6291 Registered: 09-2009  |
Romney has to win HALF of the remaining delegates. I am not thinking it is looking good for him. Newt lost again tonight. I think he is gonna tool up with Santorum and take the nomination. If this happens, we are SCREWED!!!! | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5827 Registered: 06-2009 |
Santorum and Newt cannot make an alliance to steal the election (Haha, Republicans again accused of that?) unless Romney does NOT get a majority--which I, by the way, think he's going to do. Even so, I still don't think Santorum and Gingrich will get enough delegates combined to beat Romney, so their dealing won't even matter. Newt KNOWS he isn't going to win. It was quite apparent from Interviews I've seen on FoxNewa and others, that Newt is staying in the race SOLELY to make sure Mitt doesn't get the nomination--which I think is out of Newt's control anyway. Newt is committing political suidice. His vendetta is going to kill him as a political figure--and probably already has. And, in the end, Mitt will still get the nomination, but Newt will have hurt his own party and the country in the process, not to mention himself. Go Newt. Yay. Well done, idiot. | ||
| Bud Message Board Member Username: Bud Post Number: 2033 Registered: 10-2009 |
Collector, +1 | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5829 Registered: 06-2009 |
Here's a thought: There's been considerable debate about the "truce" between Romney and Paul. What if "the deal" is that Romney won't beat up on Paul, so that if Romney somehow doesn't get the needed delegates, Paul will deal with him and give him what delegates he has gotten. That certainly could be enough to push Romney over the top, and yet still keep Paul "in the picture" at the convention. Ron Paul KNOWS he doesn't NEED delegates, because he has a different goal than Mitt Romney does. Maybe? | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1757 Registered: 10-2010 |
That makes reasonable sense. Paul is more about making a statement then winning. This would likely help get his followers to Romney for the general election (which is no sure thing) as well as allow him to feel important. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2359 Registered: 09-2010 |
I could see that. I still haven't completely ruled out the younger Paul as Mitt's VP choice. I like Santorum better than Romney frankly but I don't think that he can beat the big O. I am afraid when it comes to debate time he will lose the moderate vote. So while he will easily maintain the conservative vote he will lose the election. Even though the far right absolutely hates it they need the moderates to win ANY election. Moderates ALWAYS decide the election their are not enough on either side to win it on their own. The difference is that the left understands that better than the right does. That's why when its election time all of a sudden big O talks right down the center. He actually talks down the center alot but his actions prove otherwise. The moderates currently loathe Obama and are looking for a candidate to oust him. The republican race has been less than exciting from a moderates stand point. MOST of them like and will vote for Romney if he can stand up in the debates against Obama. I think he can. Frankly most of us currently don't "dislike" Santorum as I said I actually like him better but I don't think he can beat Obama. I think when it's debate time Obama the smooth talker will show up and absolutely annihilate Santorum. Romney on the other hand can fire back a little more smoothly and maintain appeal to the middle of the road folks. He can pick the right VP and maintain the conservative vote easily. So he certainly seems the logical choice. It will be interesting to see what happens. | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1758 Registered: 10-2010 |
You don't have to be a moderate to get the so called "moderate" vote. You just have to be a smooth talker. BHO is not a moderate and has never been a moderate. His own written statements which he has denied or backed away from are clearly radically left. Maintaining appeal to the "moderate" vote is about being smooth talker not about any actual position - and Santorum is not a smooth talker. These so called moderates that "loathe" Obama: How did they manage to elect him in the first place? As you note they are so vitally important. I still stand by that most moderates (note most, not all) simply have no inclination to actually hold positions or do the intellectual homework to elect a candidate that is consistent with those positions and go by ads and talking points. Or they are not moderate at all and are instead single issue voters. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2361 Registered: 09-2010 |
Lohman ~ That is simple I have told you this before. You throw out some crap like Mccain/Palin and you get crap like Obama. Bring a better candidate and you can win the moderate vote. Your right you don't have to "be" a moderate to get the vote but you do have to sound like you are not a radical. And smooth talking certainly doesn't hurt. Moderates don't like extreme conservatism or extreme liberalism. You yourself who constantly declare that you are socially liberal and fiscally conservative are in fact a moderate voter. Problem with Obama was coming off of 8 years of W and two wars we couldn't win. The Moderate vote was going to whoever was on the left to get a shift in direction. That is not the case in this election. Obama has done some things that some moderates like he has done more things that moderates dislike. The moderate vote is not a given for him this time though he thinks that is the case. He can easily be voted out of office right now. BUT if you put Santorum up against him I am afraid he will stick his foot in his mouth to many times and cost himself an election. Santorum could easily pick the right VP and garner the Moderate vote. As long as he could hold onto it through the debate process. You have to remember that the moderates are the ones who will actually "stay home and not vote" if they are totally disillusioned with both candidates. There is not a single registered conservative voter in this country that is not going to go out and vote against Obummer in November I don't care what crap fox news tries to sell you. BUT if the moderates stay home and don't vote against Obummer he could win reelection. As you know the liberals will turn out to vote for their prize fighter. They want another four years of this guy in a bad way. They actually like him. I don't understand it but they do. I agree that ALOT of the swing voters are talking point and smooth talker voters. With that said who do you think should debate big O Romney or Santorum? | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1760 Registered: 10-2010 |
"you do have to sound like you are not a radical" So no moderate who voted for Obama read his books or watched anything he was involved in prior to campaigning? | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5833 Registered: 06-2009 |
Newt is Right: Santorum is Better Off With Gingrich in the Race | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1761 Registered: 10-2010 |
The article may be right, but for the wrong reasons. Santorum is 243 delegates behind Romney according to the information I have above. With 1360 in play in order to end up with more delegates than Romney he would have to win 18% more delegates than Romney does. I don't think anyone thinks Santorum is going to win 18% more delegates than Romney going forward. As such the best Santorum or Gingrich can hope for is a brokered convention. If it is going to be a brokered convention than it is entirely possible that the number of delegates either Santorum or Gingrich receive would put Romney over the top. Its close on being a brokered convention. Maybe Romney makes it, maybe he misses it by and handful of delegates. If Gingrich drops out and any less than 100% of his supporters go to Romney or Paul than there is less chance of it being brokered - which I think is what Gingrich is aiming for. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2365 Registered: 09-2010 |
"So no moderate who voted for Obama read his books or watched anything he was involved in prior to campaigning?" I love how you always pull one line out of a paragraph and try to use it to defend your position Lohman. But I will answer this for you. I think the problem with Obama was two fold. His only real competition in the primaries was Clinton and nobody wanted her so he won. He was largely unknown at the time and you had to dig to find the info. Sure you could have read his book but beyond that info was harder to locate then most because he didn't have a long history as a politician. Even his voting record as a senator was short with alot of abstains lol. Couple that with the "anybody but Mcsame" sentiment that was predominant in our country at the time and Bam you get Obama. The election was by no means a landslide. Alot of moderates simply couldn't stomach Mccain Palin and voted 3rd party in that election. Hence we have an Obama win. Was it the right choice not necessarily but people often vote with their hearts and not their heads you can't change that and no amount of screaming about it is going to do any good... | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5835 Registered: 06-2009 |
The one thing we keep forgetting about is the small non-state places that have delegates, but for which neither Rick nor Newt can afford to court voters. Romney has been winning these easily. Places like Guam and American Somoa. Romney even sent his sons out to campaign for him in some of these places. You can't fill a bucket with a single raindrop, but you CAN fill it if you have lots of them! | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1812 Registered: 10-2010 |
On March 14 the New York Times showed Romney having 495 delegates out of a possible 926. He needed 48% of the remaining delegates to reach 1147. After the Illinios primary (including Puerto Rico) he has 563 delegates according to the same source. That is out of 1011. He has gained 68 delegates out of a possible 85. He had to maintain 48% to reach the 1147 - he achieved between March 14th and March 21st 80%. He now needs 584 delegates out of a possible 1273 meaning he now only has to gain 46% of the remaining delegates. It will be interesting to see how Louisianna goes and if Romney can narrow the margin (in percentage terms) going forward. | ||
| Naa_collector Message Board Member Username: Naa_collector Post Number: 5930 Registered: 06-2009 |
Well, Romney certainly got the majority of the delegates in Illinois. Romney got at least 41 and Santorum at least 10 of the 54 total. That's over 75% of the Illinois delegates for Romney. If he keeps that up, he'll easily get the majority of the delegates by the time the convention arrives. | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1818 Registered: 10-2010 |
HE did. Count Puerto Rico and het got 80% of the delegates over the last week. And yes if it continues he will be fine. I doubt 80% continues but 46% is more attainable than the 48% required before this last week. | ||
| Westerly1965 Message Board Member Username: Westerly1965 Post Number: 2396 Registered: 09-2010 |
All he has to do is win in the south and he will be more than fine. He will win Kali for sure and I would think most of the other Western states that haven't voted yet. | ||
| Lohman446 Message Board Member Username: Lohman446 Post Number: 1823 Registered: 10-2010 |
Raw figures taken from the New York times Lets see - currently he has 563 delegates he needs 584 more Disregarding Florida as not being a "real" southern state Romney took 21/76 delegates in Georgia, 14/52 in Tennessee, 14/39 in Mississippi, and 11/42 in Alabama. 60/209 or about 29% of the total delegates. The only southern states left are Louisianna (46 delegates), Kentucky (45 delegates), and Arkansas (36 delegates). 127 delegates - if he only gets 29% he still gets 36 delegates. Ths puts the 1273 remaining delegates down to 1146. It puts Romney 563 delegates. Figure he is also going to do poorly in PA. PA has 71 delegates available. Apply the same 29% number (its as poorly as Romney has done) is 20 delegates to Romney. Remaining 1075 - Romney (theoretically) at 583 Sates like California (172 delegates) and Utah (40 delegates) that Romney should do extremely well in are still counted. Assume he gets 80% of the of the delegates there (he did in Illinois) its 170 delegates more. 863 delegates remaining. Romney (theoretically) at 753 and needing just 391 to get to 1144. These are in states that should be somewhat "neutral" though that is debatable. Romney would need 45% of the delegates in these states to reach a clear majority. Texas and its 155 delegates is going to be a very interesting state to watch and I will post on how it could change the landscape later |
